Rise of the planet of the merchants

When the merchant elites buy up the provincial lords, what do the traditional elites have left in their hands? The answer requires a bit of background.

Published: 28/10/2012 at 12:00 AM
Writer: Voranai Vanijaka

When General Prem Tinsulanonda stepped down in favour of a democratic general election in 1988, the decade that follows, the 1990s, could be dubbed "Rise of the Planet of the Apes". With the power vacuum, provincial lords, mafia godfathers and gangsters in uniform ran amok in parliament and in the capital. It was a period when governments came and went, brought down by corruption scandals. The newly rich borrowed frivolously and invested unwisely, while the banks were only too happy to join the party.

This was the time when the so-called "kingmakers" rivalled the actual leaders of the country in fame and power. Sanoh Thientong, Newin Chidchob and Suwat Liptapanlop were provincial lords who shaped the nation. The 1990s was also a time when there were very few rules in Bangkok. Law-trumping and power-flaunting individuals got away with anything you can imagine. There was no legal order, social order or any kind of order. It was a time when anything went, a time of cowboys and yahoos. When the 1997 economic crisis hit, everyone knew it was time for a change.

The traditional elites had high hopes that the Democrats would be able to wrest the torch from the military strongmen. They weren't cowboys and yahoos, but learned gentlemen who never could win a general election or sustain a government because they never could bring the provincial lords to heel.

The merchant elites traditionally stayed out of politics (not counting behind-the-scenes manoeuvres), but with cowboys and yahoos running amok and the future uncertain, they kept a close watch. Finally they felt that the traditional elites' time was up and the yahoos and cowboys needed to be put on a leash in the new globalised, capitalistic world - in short, the "real world".

So with the backing of the merchant elites, Thaksin Shinawatra in 2001 brought with him political stability, social order and populism. Extrajudicial killings, human rights abuses and infringement on freedoms became systematic government policies. Yes, he even brought order to these things.

He fought corruption by rewriting the laws to make his investments legal. Whereas the traditional elites are above the rules and the provincial lords break the rules, the merchant elites change the rules.

Thaksin did what no other post-Prem government could: he got things done.

During the Democrat-led coalition government (2009-2011), a major obstacle for Abhisit Vejjajiva was that the squabbling and power-grabbing of the provincial lords undermined the effectiveness of his government. Thaksin did what Mr Abhisit couldn't - he brought the provincial lords to heel. These relics of the 1990s are still relevant, mind you, and have some teeth left, but they are not prominent. Here we must take an aside and salute Chalerm Yubamrung as the one relic still standing tall. The man is good at what he does.

Returning to history, the downfall of Thaksin was twofold.

First, the traditional elites were alarmed by his haughty arrogance, moves to reel the military into the fold and a threatening cult of personality. Second, dissension rose among the ranks of the merchant elites due to broken promises and deals reneged on. (Corruption wasn't to blame, merely a convenient excuse to rally the anti-Thaksin opposition.)

With the 2006 military coup, the traditional elites employed the military, an old strategy in a new game, and it worked at the time. But time also proved that the old strategy was no match for a savvy and sustained marketing campaign, and so the Thaksin political machine came roaring back.

To the question posed at the top of this column - when the merchant elites buy up the provincial lords, what do the traditional elites have left in their hands? - the answer is the military.

However, as Bangkok Post military analyst Wassana Nanuam wrote on Oct 18, Thaksin is employing "the right tactics" through his sister, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who uses her female charms when dealing with the armed forces.

Adding to that, with key positions in the Royal Thai Police and the Defence Ministry staffed by Thaksin loyalists, it is merely a matter of time before big brother himself is back.

If a hardline right-wing royalist like the late Khattiya "Seh Daeng" Sawatdiphol can be turned into at Thaksinista and martyr of the red shirt movement, and if 2006 coup leader Sonthi Boonyaratglin now works for the Pheu Thai government and sponsored a reconciliation bill critics have said is a vehicle to grant amnesty to Thaksin, then really, what chance do the others have? For the time being, however, the strategy is to simply keep the soldiers in the barracks. Thus, the instrument of Thaksin's downfall is being addressed with "the right tactics".

As for the ranks of the merchant elites, of course not everyone was or will be Thaksin's ally. But for most of the merchant elites, business is business, it's nothing personal. In Thailand's political divide, they are the most unbiased group.

Some liquidated when the wind was sweeping against Thaksin, simply because one doesn't invest in a falling stock. Some stuck by him through thick and thin due to personal loyalty or simply because they were hedging their bets or speculating on a future market.

To identify who the latter are, simply look at the names of companies blacklisted by the Abhisit government after the political chaos in 2010 for funding the uprising. But they are perhaps only a fraction of Thaksin's backers.

If we want to look into the future and predict who will win this battle for Thailand, it is best to look at who the merchant elites are betting on, and perhaps it's a bit early to tell. Perhaps they are still surveying the market and conducting focus groups. But if a picture is worth 1,000 words, then dig up the front page of last Wednesday's Bangkok Post, and look at the photo of members of Forbes magazine's first and second richest families in Thailand posing with Thaksin (his family is number 24) at an event in Dubai.

In a feudal world, kings and lords are in charge. In a warring world, military strongmen are in charge. In a capitalistic world, where the world order is measured by GDP indexes and where nations form alliances based on economic cooperation - as in Asean Economic Community (AEC) - guess who the people in charge are.

Someone once told me that even the president of the United States - whether Democrat or Republican - takes his cue from the Wall Street bankers, the oil merchants and the arms dealers. They decide the course of the nation, while the president and the people are kept busy wrestling over domestic issues such as abortion, gay rights and immigration.

Winston Churchill once said that "that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried". Half a century later, democracy and capitalism go together like Batman and Robin.

Think of the plot of those Hollywood sci-fi movies where nations and the world are run by corporations, while the mass are but labourers/consumers content to survive through populist handouts, occupied by games and pacified by over-the-counter drugs.

The rise of the merchants is simply the next stage in the saga of man; a stage dictated less by the might of arms and more by economic supply and demand.

There's little money left to be made in the US and Europe, but still plenty to be made in Asia. What of the AEC? Who's busy making deals in Myanmar and Cambodia? Who's consolidating power domestically and striking deals internationally? Who's ready for this brave new world?

The merchant elites understand how the modern world works and are buying it up, while the rest of us are kept busy arguing over the rice pledging scheme and arguing over who loves the King more.

If one group of people prays to the past and gets bogged down by the petty squabbles of the present, while another group buys up the future, who's going to win?

Look for a hostile takeover in two to five years.

The question for the future then is: Will Thailand's merchant elites make up the the worst government ever, except for all the ones that have been tried before in this Kingdom?

Contact Voranai Vanijaka via email at voranaiv@bangkokpost.co.th.

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Discussion 1 : 30/10/2012 at 02:47 PM: Doubt is the beginning of wisdom. More faith should be placed on the power of human ingenuity and resiliencies to change. The “tongue in cheek” prophecy of the “merchant elites” lording over the people’s will are but Hollywood movies made for the gullible. Individuals in Forbes come and go because that’s the nature of their businesses; changing paradigms is the norm. In the general schemes of things, it’s the hearts and minds of the people that aspiring leaders must tap into: “When you let your own light shine, you unconsciously give others the permission to do the same”. Nelson Mandela
Discussion 2 : 29/10/2012 at 11:38 PM: One gets the feeling all of Asia is going to get very thirsty in the near future; peak oil seems a peculiar distraction. It appears inevitable that there will be large-scale or even nuclear wars fought to control the ever-dwindling but most important non-renewable resource of all. It's disconcerting watching the media whip up hype over peak oil and climate change when the planet is facing a far greater threat. We have a fresh water problem. You can't really call it a crisis; for large tracts of the globe (the places we try not to think about whilst we render them uninhabitable with our imagined Need for consumption); the horrifying Realit
Discussion 3 : 29/10/2012 at 04:51 PM: D26, D24, D20 & D19; man are you folks naive and the elitists love it that way. D28, the names of these elitist - check out Forbes, they are all there and what Forbes reports is a fraction of what they truly are worth. The power of these elitists is growing and the gap between these people and the rest of us grows with it, not just in Thailand, but globally. The AEC will enhance the wealth of all these people. Gnats swallowed by AEC, yeah right.
Discussion 4 : 28/10/2012 at 09:32 PM: I hear all about the elite with no actual names .Maybe you could name some names who these people who have so much power are .
Discussion 5 : 28/10/2012 at 07:39 PM: Heaven forbid K. Voranai would take the "advise" of the philistines (eg hugo d.22). and start dumbing down his excellent analyses of Thai politics and society.
Discussion 6 : 28/10/2012 at 07:26 PM: "The Thai merchant elite are gnats that will be swatted when AEC rolls in - and Thailand's troubles will just being." Discussion 20. Spot on These internal problems and family squabbles are petty and meaningless when compared to the big picture. Voranai, among others should address the inevitable negative impact of the AEC on Thai people who are completely unaware of what's coming and totally unprepared to deal with it and compete. Thais are destined to become 2nd class citizens in their own country.
Discussion 7 : 28/10/2012 at 06:15 PM: The epitome of commercialisation.
Discussion 8 : 28/10/2012 at 04:09 PM: It’s the ECONOMY that is the sole determinant force for any aspiring governments; whoever can bring real prosperity and progress to the people/nation can expect a sustain period of governance. Military strongman, traditional elites and merchant elites, these are just self-interest groups looking out for their pecuniary interests; eventually the people will wised up and see through their ploys in their moments of weaknesses. This present situation will play itself out for many years until major world events supersede local politics and allow the political cards to be reshuffled once again.
Discussion 9 : 28/10/2012 at 03:00 PM: I think many posts here lack sense of reality. It appears obvious that Thailand' s stability is based on few pillars: the Monarchy, the Army, the rural class, and the Religion. The rest, all events we watch, is just a very temporary expression of power and struggle for power, and this is the only way to preserve a social and economical balance. Full democracy the way we think of it, it can not exist in Asian countries, simply because "democracy" is a western idea which a very small elite insists with advertising and trying to import from the west, and which the other side, less elitarian, uses as a slogan and as a weapon for its political str
Discussion 10 : 28/10/2012 at 02:34 PM: Dear Khun Voranai, just a little advise: what about making your Sunday articles a little less prolix?
Discussion 11 : 28/10/2012 at 02:16 PM: Great stuff again, K Voranai, thank you for this, chilling, surgical analysis. To be complete, your opinion was just missing on two elements: (real) THAI people (90+% of the population), and, Democracy (for the next century?). Probably because both are only of interest to these 'merchant elites' for the part they can (mis)use? Oh, and one question, please: with the 'merchant elites', do you mean Italian immigrants, or ...?
Discussion 12 : 28/10/2012 at 01:31 PM: You're giving Thaksin way too much credit. He's directed by his Western backers - the Carlyle bunch, and the US-ASEAN Business Council (Wall Street) which regularly meets with UDD leaders. The US State Department pours tons of cash into shaping Thaksin's policies and public image. Thaksin didn't "get things done," his advisers did. The Thai merchant elite are gnats that will be swatted when AEC rolls in - and Thailand's troubles will just being.
Discussion 13 : 28/10/2012 at 11:30 AM: For those who can see past the current squabbling elites and politicians, there is hope. These elites will disappear eventually for the simple reason that the world will be forced to create a unified global system of government without them for its very survival. The world has to work together in unity and there can be no unity or healthy growth with squabbling elites and massive corporations controlling everything everywhere. Look at the mess in Thailand, for example. While it seems impossible now, mankind will be forced by circumstances to find a new system of administration. Thaksin and his ilk will fade into ignominy. Nothing they create
Discussion 14 : 28/10/2012 at 11:14 AM: Old lady judges watch people in pairs Limited in sex, they dare To push fake morals, insult and stare While money doesn’t talk, it swears Obscenity, who really cares Propaganda, all is phony While preachers preach of evil fates Teachers teach that knowledge waits Can lead to hundred-dollar plates Goodness hides behind its gates But even the president of the United States Sometimes must have to stand naked Although the masters make the rules For the wise men and the fools I got nothing, Ma, to live up to Bob Dylan
Discussion 15 : 28/10/2012 at 10:43 AM: A good article, as usual. I would like to add the following thought. Those who see the future clearly will know that troubled times lie ahead, we are looking at global shortages of fuel, food and clean water. Whoever controls these will be the future elite.
Discussion 16 : 28/10/2012 at 10:28 AM: Laser-like analysis. Spot on.
Discussion 17 : 28/10/2012 at 10:14 AM: Excellent history & analysis. I hope that many 'yellows' will read & understand how anemic the Dem's were/are when in government & how the populism of TS was fueled in part by the feeling that he got things done. Interesting to speculate on the future of Thailand... but impossible to predict.
Discussion 18 : 28/10/2012 at 09:54 AM: "The traditional elites had high hopes that the Democrats would be able to wrest the torch from the military strongmen. They weren't cowboys and yahoos, but learned gentlemen who never could win a general election or sustain a government because they never could bring the provincial lords to heel." The Democrats have *never* wrested any torch from the military - they've historically been handed it by the military repeatedly ever since the 1940's. And their inability to 'bring provincial lords to heel' isn't why they lose elections - reread my first sentence to know why.
Discussion 19 : 28/10/2012 at 09:36 AM: Khun Voranai – individual power is always temporary. Eventually someone (perhaps another merchant elite) grows up to challenge the incumbent, because the incumbent is not the only one with a desire for power. Do not assume that all challengers (even another merchant) are bad or will behave the same as Khun Thaksin. It is perfectly possible for the challenger to think more about the benefit of the country than himself or his clan – indeed that might be the reason for a successful challenge
Discussion 20 : 28/10/2012 at 09:18 AM: There may be a 4th constituent which is people power. The power play by the 3 constituents in a democracy system can be negated by a better educated, informed and growing middle class who can decide who or what is best for the country and for themselves. As long as Thailand poor are disadvantaged moving up the income level and education is not forthcoming, the poor population mass can be manipulated. Of course all this is futile should any of the group employed brute take over using the military.
Discussion 21 : 28/10/2012 at 09:07 AM: The one question I have is if the money power have not changed it's view on who to back since PTP came to power. If one look at public statements by the merchants they are backing YS more and more. Maybe TS has too much baggage for them and his personnality haven't changed since 2006 either. Another factor is that TS doesn't have wide spread support anymore I think his support will be below 20% at present. To bring him back are becoming a political liability for PTP as well.
Discussion 22 : 28/10/2012 at 08:52 AM: Some think to get power by money (buy everything everyone), some think to get power by force (strong armament, strong army, strong police, repression...) Taksin has failed because he thought his money (like merchant) could do all. Unfortunately, a lord army general expulsed him... The time has changed and Taksin learnt enough (?), he want to come back as merchant and lord, his best combination to give the helm of Thailand to several generation of Shinawatra members. Fourtunately, there is another option : DEMOCRACY ! Is Thailand mature to understand that ?
Discussion 23 : 28/10/2012 at 08:29 AM: Couldn't agree more that the merchant class changes the rules. This is what the bankers have done in the west, their insatiable greed led most to technical bankruptcy, and it was their government lackies bailing them out that has bankrupted so many countries. They stayed rich and the general populations are being impoverished. The real problem with the merchants is not that they follow a political philosophy, they don't, it is that their avarice knows no bounds, in the end they wish to concentrate most of the wealth in their hands at the expense of the rest of us. In the west we are moving to feudalism, in Thailand it is simply about maintain
Discussion 24 : 28/10/2012 at 07:40 AM: That is an interesting and thought provoking opinion from K Voranai this morning. I hope I am still around in a few years time to see the results of this but I fear for the future of my 8 year old son in this vision.
Discussion 25 : 28/10/2012 at 06:56 AM: Earlier in the article you pointed out how the era after Prem lead eventually to the the financial crash of '97 because of merchant elite taking advantage of corruption prone governments. Out of that arose Thaksin, a merchant elite in the seat of power, Voranai, do you no think that eventually we will come full circle on that, and that the present economically insane populist policies will lead us to another financially traumatic end to this era of money-driven politics. Might that be the final solution regarding the Shinawatra's power monopoly grab?
Discussion 26 : 28/10/2012 at 05:51 AM: Energy companies control Thailand and indeed the entire world. Look at the wealth created by your own state run oil companies. The strategic planning of these companies is a major determining factor of economic growth into the future for Thailand. We worry about things such as flooding and the like. But without relevant strategic planning by these energy companies, let’s just say the economic future of Thailand and indeed the entire world would not be good.
Discussion 27 : 28/10/2012 at 05:11 AM: Thailand's merchant elites are much the same as China's oligarch families that feed of the communist state through the connections of family and the nepotisim they goes with it. Much of their operations and money are in a web of family trusts, close freinds and cronies. Thailand's oligarch families are much the same.They have for decades worked alongside security forces and provincal lords to maintain their status, influence and control. They have hyjacked the government and installed their family memebers. They have bribed and payed off the security forces even when they ran the government. These oligarchs are as far from democractic when t
Discussion 28 : 28/10/2012 at 04:55 AM: Khun Voranai,the movies about corporations and bankers ruling the world which you refer to as sci-fi. It is not. That IS the real world. Does Illuminate/New World Order mean anything to you? I suggest you read a little about the Rothchilds,the Rockefellers and the few other families that rule the world from the shadows. Though Thaksin has worked for them through his position in the Asia Advisory Board of the Carlyle Group from '97 to '01,he still isn't one of them and my guess is,he never will be. He is useful but expendable.
Discussion 29 : 28/10/2012 at 04:45 AM: "The 1990s was also a time when there were very few rules in Bangkok. Law-trumping and power-flaunting individuals got away with anything you can imagine. There was no legal order, social order or any kind of order. It was a time when anything went" And there was me thinking Khun Voranai was referring to modern day Thailand!!
Discussion 30 : 28/10/2012 at 04:43 AM: Once Again Mr Voranai sums up the situation in Thailand thoroughly.His analysis of what is really going on behind the bluff and bluster of the main players hits the nail on the head.It is business power,maintained in the hands of the crony capitalists that surround the Shinawatra dynasty and the changes they can make to the laws, that benefited Thaksin last time around and will do so again,that are the key elements right now.When you control the Government you write or change whatever laws you like but still ensure that they provide ample room for you and your network to use the State coffers to your advantage.
Discussion 31 : 28/10/2012 at 04:07 AM: The old saying........"ten merchants does not equal to a single lord" is no longer true in this day and age because of the reason given by the writer above.

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